A Mathematical Description of the Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Case Study of Brazil

Comput Math Methods Med. 2020 Sep 30:2020:9017157. doi: 10.1155/2020/9017157. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and numerical simulations related to the coronavirus dynamics. A description is developed based on the framework of the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model. Initially, a model verification is carried out calibrating system parameters with data from China, Italy, Iran, and Brazil. Results show the model capability to predict infectious evolution. Afterward, numerical simulations are performed in order to analyze different scenarios of COVID-19 in Brazil. Results show the importance of the governmental and individual actions to control the number and the period of the critical situations related to the pandemic.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Betacoronavirus
  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • COVID-19
  • China / epidemiology
  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Iran / epidemiology
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Public Health Informatics
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • SARS-CoV-2