Selection of oil spill response method in Arctic offshore waters: A fuzzy decision tree based framework

Guangji Hu; Saeed Mohammadiun; Abdorreza Alavi Gharahbagh; Jianbing Li; Kasun Hewage; Rehan Sadiq

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111705

Selection of oil spill response method in Arctic offshore waters: A fuzzy decision tree based framework

Mar Pollut Bull. 2020 Dec;161(Pt A):111705. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111705. Epub 2020 Oct 3.

Authors

Guangji Hu¹, Saeed Mohammadiun², Abdorreza Alavi Gharahbagh³, Jianbing Li⁴, Kasun Hewage⁵, Rehan Sadiq⁶

Affiliations

¹ School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, 3333 University Way, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada. Electronic address: guangji.hu@ubc.ca.
² School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, 3333 University Way, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada. Electronic address: s.mohammadiun@alumni.ubc.ca.
³ Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Shahrood Branch, Shahrood 1584743311, Iran. Electronic address: abalavi.gh@gmail.com.
⁴ Environmental Engineering Program, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9, Canada. Electronic address: jianbing.li@unbc.ca.
⁵ School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, 3333 University Way, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada. Electronic address: kasun.hewage@ubc.ca.
⁶ School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, 3333 University Way, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada. Electronic address: rehan.sadiq@ubc.ca.

PMID: 33022490
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111705

Abstract

A fuzzy decision tree (FDT) based framework was developed to facilitate the selection of suitable oil spill response methods in the Arctic. Hypothetical oil spill cases were developed based on six identified attributes, while the suitability of three spill response methods (mechanical containment and recovery, use of chemical dispersants, and in-situ burning) for each spill case was obtained based on expert judgments. Fuzzy sets were used to address the associated uncertainties, and FDTs were then developed through generating: i) one decision tree for all three response methods (FDT-AP1) and ii) one decision tree for each response method and the development of linear regression models at terminal nodes (FDT-LR). The FDT-LR approach exhibited higher prediction accuracy than the FDT-AP1 approach. A maximum of 100% accurate predictions could be achieved for testing cases using it. On average, 75% of suitable oil spill response methods out of 10,000 performed iterations were predicted correctly.

Keywords: Arctic/subarctic regions; Decision support; Fuzzy decision tree; Oil spill response; Response method selection.

MeSH terms

Arctic Regions
Decision Trees
Petroleum Pollution*