Act early, save lives: managing COVID-19 in Greece

Abstract

Objectives: The aim of the study was to assess the impact of social distancing interventions in Greece and to examine what would have happened if those interventions had not been implemented.

Study design: A dynamic, discrete time, stochastic individual-based model was developed to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission.

Methods: The model was fitted to the observed trends in COVID-19 deaths and intensive care unit (ICU) bed use in Greece.

Results: If Greece had not implemented social distancing interventions, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed between March 30 and April 4. The combined social distancing interventions and increase in ICU beds averted 4360 (95% credible interval: 3050, 5700) deaths and prevented the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed.

Conclusions: The quick and accurate interventions of the Greek government limited the burden of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Keywords: COVID-19; Health policy; Mathematical modelling; Public health; Social distancing measures efficacy.