Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China

Yongli Cai; Shi Zhao; Yun Niu; Zhihang Peng; Kai Wang; Daihai He; Weiming Wang

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110453

Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China

J Theor Biol. 2021 Jan 7:508:110453. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110453. Epub 2020 Sep 16.

Authors

Yongli Cai¹, Shi Zhao², Yun Niu³, Zhihang Peng⁴, Kai Wang⁵, Daihai He⁶, Weiming Wang⁷

Affiliations

¹ School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300 PR China. Electronic address: yonglicai@hytc.edu.cn.
² Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077 PR China; Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Lab, Shenzhen Research Institute, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518057 PR China.
³ School of Urban and Environmental Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300 PR China.
⁴ School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166 PR China. Electronic address: zhihangpeng@njmu.edu.cn.
⁵ Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011 PR China. Electronic address: wangkaimath@sina.com.
⁶ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077 PR China. Electronic address: daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.
⁷ School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300 PR China. Electronic address: weimingwang2003@163.com.

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, R₀, and prove that R₀ can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average R₀ is 1.13,>1 and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease. Therefore, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Control; Relative infectivity; Uniform persistence.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Basic Reproduction Number
China / epidemiology
Epidemics*
Humans
Tuberculosis* / epidemiology