Objectives: to evaluate short-medium term incidence and mortality projections of pleural malignant mesothelioma (PMM) in Sicily Region (Southern Italy) and in its four National Priority Contaminated Sites (NPCSs).
Design: population-based prediction study.
Setting and participants: PMM cases from 1998 to 2016 registered by the Regional Operations Centre of the Sicilian Region.
Main outcome measures: incidence and mortality trends of PMM were estimated for the period 1998-2016 from the relationships among mortality, incidence, and survival. Projections of incidence and mortality rates were obtained up to 2026.
Results: age-standardized incidence rates of PMM in Sicily were estimated to increase in men from 1.4 (x100,000) in 1998 to 2.29 in 2021 and to slightly decrease down to 2.2 in 2026. Women age-standardized rates in the same period are estimated to decrease from 0.52 to 0.27. In Biancavilla, age-standardized incidence rates were estimated to remain stable between 8.1 and 8.0 in men, while crude rates increased from 8.3 in 1998 to 10.7 in 2026. For women, the estimated age-standardized incidence rates are increasing from 3.08 to 6.75. In the three pooled NPCSs of Augusta-Priolo, Gela, and Milazzo, the estimates of age-standardized incidence rates show an initial trend to growth followed by a decreasing trend, both in men and women, down to predicted values in 2016 of 3.0 in men and 0.77 in women. Estimated age-standardized and crude mortality rates show, for both sexes and all areas, similar patterns as those estimated for incidence.
Conclusions: in Sicily and in the three NPCSs of Gela, Milazzo, and Priolo, incidence and mortality projections are downward in both sexes. In Biancavilla, mesothelioma occurrence is estimated to increase up to 2026, slightly in males and more significantly in females.