Wagner proposition in Nigeria: An econometric analysis

Abiola Ayopo Babajide; Funso Abiodun Okunlola; Emeka Nwuba; Adedoyin Isola Lawal

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04680

Wagner proposition in Nigeria: An econometric analysis

Heliyon. 2020 Aug 28;6(8):e04680. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04680. eCollection 2020 Aug.

Authors

Abiola Ayopo Babajide¹, Funso Abiodun Okunlola¹, Emeka Nwuba¹, Adedoyin Isola Lawal²

Affiliations

¹ Dept of Banking and Finance, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria.
² Dept. of Accounting and Finance, Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria.

Abstract

Succinct exploration of Adolph Wagner's Proposition [WP] 1883 - Peacock and Wiseman 1961version was put to the validation test in the study. At least, this time, for a quinaquina octo annis period, representing the life span of Nigeria. Specific suspicion of shocks from data from the world indicator and monetary authority necessitated the adoption of the ADF test with structural breaks, which came out positive at alternating integrating order. This propelled the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model path having specified the lag selection automatically. Even though the series showed significant association in the short run, and bi-directional causality, the result of the Bound test - F-statistics (calculated) = 3.42 falls below upper Bound I(0) = 4.68 and lower bound I(1) = 5.15 hence, invalidates the WP position in the long - run in Nigeria. This is an indication that a reduction in non-economically viable and overlapping, funds-straining ministries/departments/agencies (MDA) is indispensable.

Keywords: ARDL; Economic development; Economic growth; Economics; Government spending; Public economics; Real GDP; Social sciences; Structural breaks; Wagner proposition.