Prediction of local COVID-19 spread in Heidelberg

F1000Res. 2020 Apr 2:9:232. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.23034.1. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Since the first identified case of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, the disease has developed into a pandemic, imposing a major challenge for health authorities and hospitals worldwide. Mathematical transmission models can help hospitals to anticipate and prepare for an upcoming wave of patients by forecasting the time and severity of infections. Taking the city of Heidelberg as an example, we predict the ongoing spread of the disease for the next months including hospital and ventilator capacity and consider the possible impact of currently imposed countermeasures.

Keywords: COVID-19; compartmental model; hospitalization; mortality.

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Cities / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
  • Germany / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
  • SARS-CoV-2

Associated data

  • figshare/10.6084/m9.figshare.12038664

Grants and funding

We acknowledge financial support by the Baden-Württemberg Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts and by Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg.