Uncovering the spatial variability of recent deforestation drivers in the Brazilian Cerrado

Abstract

In recent years, the Cerrado deforestation has increased considerably, reaching rates higher than in the Amazonian realm. Although the effects of deforestation are well known, the understanding of its drives at regional levels is incipient. Most studies consider that a driver influences deforestation likewise in all regions. However, deforestation has a strong spatial structure that can lead drivers to vary their influence on deforestation in different regions. Here, we evaluated the spatial variability in the relationship between the recent Cerrado deforestation and socioeconomic, environmental, and structural drivers at a regional scale. We used a geographically weighted regression (GWR) to assess the spatial variability of predictor variables. We identified regions that respond similarly to the drivers by grouping municipalities, considering their GWR coefficients through hierarchical clustering. The analyses that consider the spatial variability of predictors are more appropriated to assess the causes of recent deforestation. Remnant natural vegetation influenced the recent deforestation in all defined regions. Greater access to rural credit concession was the main driving force of deforestation in the northeast region defined here. Distance to roads increased deforestation in the northeast and north regions, while it inhibited deforestation in the central-east and southeast regions. Rainfall inhibited deforestation in the northeast, north, and southwest regions. Steep slope prevented deforestation mainly in the northeast, north, and southwest regions. Our results highlight that, to effectively reduce Cerrado deforestation, public policies should integrate strategies focusing not only at national and biome levels but also at the regional spatial level.

Keywords: Brazilian savanna; Deforestation; GWR; MATOPIBA; Regional-scale deforestation; Spatial variability.