Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure

João A M Gondim; Larissa Machado

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110166

Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Nov:140:110166. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110166. Epub 2020 Aug 13.

Authors

João A M Gondim¹, Larissa Machado²

Affiliations

¹ Unidade Acadêmica do Cabo de Santo Agostinho, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Cabo de Santo Agostinho, PE, Brazil.
² Departamento de Matemática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil.

Abstract

The goal of this work is to study the optimal controls for the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We consider an age-structured SEIRQ model with quarantine compartment, where the controls are the quarantine entrance parameters. We then compare the optimal controls for different quarantine lengths and distributions of the total control cost by assessing their respective reductions in deaths in comparison to the same period without quarantine. The best strategy provides a calendar of when to relax the isolation measures for each age group. Finally, we analyse how a delay in the beginning of the quarantine affects this calendar by changing the initial conditions.

Keywords: COVID-19; Optimal control; Quarantine; SEIR model.