Epidemiology of dengue fever in Guatemala

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 Aug 19;14(8):e0008535. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008535. eCollection 2020 Aug.

Abstract

Dengue fever occurs worldwide and about 1% of cases progress to severe haemorrhage and shock. Dengue is endemic in Guatemala and its surveillance system could document long term trends. We analysed 17 years of country-wide dengue surveillance data in Guatemala to describe epidemiological trends from 2000 to 2016.Data from the national dengue surveillance database were analysed to describe dengue serotype frequency, seasonality, and outbreaks. We used Poisson regression models to compare the number of cases each year with subsequent years and to estimate incidence ratios within serotype adjusted by age and gender. 91,554 samples were tested. Dengue was confirmed by RT-qPCR, culture or NS1-ELISA in 7097 (7.8%) cases and was IgM ELISA-positive in 19,290 (21.1%) cases. DENV1, DENV2, DENV3, and DENV4 were detected in 2218 (39.5%), 2580 (45.9%), 591 (10.5%), and 230 (4.1%) cases. DENV1 and DENV2 were the predominant serotypes, but all serotypes caused epidemics. The largest outbreak occurred in 2010 with 1080 DENV2 cases reported. The incidence was higher among adults during epidemic years, with significant increases in 2005, 2007, and 2013 DENV1 outbreaks, the 2010 DENV2 and 2003 DENV3 outbreaks. Adults had a lower incidence immediately after epidemics, which is likely linked to increased immunity.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Antibodies, Viral / immunology
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Dengue / diagnosis*
  • Dengue / epidemiology*
  • Dengue / immunology
  • Dengue Virus / immunology
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay
  • Female
  • Guatemala / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Infant
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Polymerase Chain Reaction
  • Serogroup
  • Serotyping / methods
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • Antibodies, Viral

Grants and funding

This publication was supported by grants received by LdelCCS from Guatemala’s Secretaria Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia, Senacyt and from the UK MRC Zika Rapid Response Initiative (Award: ZK/16-025, PI LEC). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.