Background and purpose: Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH), potentially associated with poor prognosis, is a major complication of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) for ischemic stroke patients. We aimed to develop and validate a risk model for predicting sICH after EVT in Chinese patients due to large-artery occlusions in the anterior circulation.
Methods: The derivation cohort recruited patients with EVT from the Endovascular Treatment for Acute Anterior Circulation Ischemic Stroke Registry in China. sICH was diagnosed according to the Heidelberg Bleeding Classification within 24 hours of EVT. Stepwise logistic regression was performed to derive the predictive model. The discrimination and calibration of the risk model were assessed using the C index and the calibration plot. An additional cohort of 503 patients from 2 stroke centers was prospectively enrolled to validate the new model.
Results: We enrolled 629 patients who underwent EVT as the derivation cohort, among whom 87 developed sICH (13.8%). In the multivariate adjustment, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (odds ratio [OR], 0.85; P=0.005), baseline glucose (OR, 1.13; P=0.001), poor collateral circulation (OR, 3.06; P=0.001), passes with retriever (OR, 1.52; P=0.001), and onset-to-groin puncture time (OR, 1.79; P=0.024) were independent factors of sICH and were incorporated as the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, Baseline Glucose, Poor Collateral Circulation, Passes With Retriever, and Onset-to-Groin Puncture Time (ASIAN) score. The ASIAN score demonstrated good discrimination in the derivation cohort (C index, 0.771 [95% CI, 0.716-0.826]), as well as the validation cohort (C index, 0.758 [95% CI, 0.691-0.825]).
Conclusions: The ASIAN score reliably predicts the risk of sICH in Chinese ischemic stroke patients treated by EVT.
Keywords: calibration; cohort studies; forecasting; logistic models; stroke.