Trends in adaptation of fifteen European countries population to SARS-CoV-2 in March-May 2020: Can Taiwanese experience be adopted?

J Formos Med Assoc. 2021 Jan;120(1 Pt 3):679-687. doi: 10.1016/j.jfma.2020.07.038. Epub 2020 Jul 31.

Abstract

Background: The purpose of the work is to analyze population adaptation to SARS-CoV-2 in Europe in March-May 2020, predict herd immunity formation in the nearest several months on the basis of our SIR modified epidemiological model of the virus spread and elaborate recommendations to governments regarding a second wave of COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: Outer (1,006,512 RT-PCR tests results for SARS-CoV-2) and proprietary (34,660 respiratory samples) epidemiological data was used. Fifteen European countries were studied. Dates of research: March 2 - May 22, 2020.

Results: As of April 21, 2020, the mean population infection rate (PIR) for the European countries considered, was 9.66%. It decreased to 6.85% by May 22, 2020. The model predicted 5.68% PIR, giving accuracy of 79.40%. SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number is limited by an extremum that may be observed for closed communities. A concept of effective reproduction number is introduced as a function of r0 with maximum at r0 = 4.671 and value reff. = 0.315 for the full-lockdown mode and r0 = 5.539 and reff. = 0.552 for the no-lockdown mode of SARS-CoV-2 containment. Full-lockdown and no-lockdown modes resulted in the outcomes not strikingly different from each other in terms of herd immunity values.

Conclusion: In case of a second wave of COVID-19 disease in Europe, it will coincide with seasonal common cold surge, spanning from mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021, with a median in November-December 2020. Strict epidemiological surveillance must be observed in Europe at that time.

Keywords: Herd immunity; Human population adaptation; SARS-CoV-2.

MeSH terms

  • Adaptation, Physiological / immunology
  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data*
  • COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing / methods
  • COVID-19* / diagnosis
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / immunology
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • Coinfection / epidemiology
  • Coinfection / prevention & control
  • Common Cold* / epidemiology
  • Common Cold* / prevention & control
  • Communicable Disease Control* / organization & administration
  • Communicable Disease Control* / statistics & numerical data
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious* / prevention & control
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious* / statistics & numerical data
  • Epidemiological Monitoring
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Immunity, Herd*
  • Models, Statistical
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Seasons