Nomogram for individualized prediction of incident multidrug-resistant tuberculosis after completing pulmonary tuberculosis treatment

Sci Rep. 2020 Aug 13;10(1):13730. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-70748-x.

Abstract

The purposes of this study were to construct a comprehensive nomogram for providing a simple, precise and personalized prediction of incident multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) after completing pulmonary tuberculosis treatment (CPTBT). A matched case-control study (1:2 ratios) was performed between 2005 and 2018. A multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate independent predictors of incident MDR-TB after the CPTBT. A comprehensive nomogram was developed based on the multivariable Cox model. Overall, 1, 836 participants were included in this study. We developed and validated a simple-to-use nomogram that predicted the individualized risk of incident MDR-TB by using 10 parameters after the CPTBT. The concordance index of this nomogram was 0.833 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.807-0.859] and 0.871 (95% CI 0.773-0.969) for the training and validation sets, respectively, which indicated adequate discriminatory power. The calibration curves for the risk of incident MDR-TB showed an optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation in the training and validation sets, respectively. The high sensitivity and specificity of nomogram was indicated by using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Through this clinic tool, TB control executives could more precisely monitor, estimate and intervene the risk of incident MDR-TB among individuals with CPTBT.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Case-Control Studies
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Nomograms
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • ROC Curve
  • Regression Analysis
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant / epidemiology*
  • Tuberculosis, Pulmonary / drug therapy*