Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation Subtypes in Italy and Projections to 2060 for Italy and Europe

Abstract

Background/objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) subtypes may carry different cardiovascular risk profiles, but information on their frequency from population-based studies is lacking. We estimated prevalence of AF subtypes in a representative sample of the Italian older population, projecting figures for Italy and the European Union.

Design: Cross-sectional study.

Setting: Three primary care practices in northern, central, and southern Italy.

Participants: All individuals aged 65 years or older, for a total sample of 6,016 subjects. Excluding 235 noneligible, participation was 78.3%, which left 4,528 participants.

Measurements: A double systematic and opportunistic screening procedure identified possible AF cases, followed by clinical and electrocardiogram confirmation. Patients were categorized with paroxysmal, persistent, or permanent AF. Prevalence was calculated by sex and 5-year age groups. Prevalence figures were applied to population projections for all 28 European Union states to estimate AF subtypes expected in future decades.

Results: In the 4,528 participants (mean age = 74.5 ± 6.8 years; 47.2% men), 331 AF cases were identified: 140 (42.3%) paroxysmal, 77 (23.3%) persistent, and 114 (34.4%) permanent. Prevalence was 3.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.6%-3.6%) for paroxysmal, 1.7% (95% CI = 1.4%-2.1%) for persistent, and 2.5% (95% CI = 2.1%-3.0%) for permanent AF. Italian older persons having AF in 2016 were estimated at approximately 449,000 for paroxysmal, approximately 240,000 for persistent, and approximately 391,000 for permanent AF, projected to increase in 2060 to approximately 785,000, approximately 358,000, and approximately 748,000, respectively. European Union older persons having AF in 2016 were estimated at approximately 3,185,000 for paroxysmal, approximately 1,722,000 for persistent, and approximately 2,710,000 for permanent AF, projected to increase in 2060 to approximately 5,989,000, approximately 2,833,000, and approximately 5,579,000, respectively.

Conclusion: We provided first projections of AF subtypes for Italy and Europe. The worse cardiovascular risk profile of persistent and permanent forms indicates an increased burden in future decades.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation; epidemiology; projections; risk factors; stroke.