Defining and predicting early recurrence in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Abstract

Background: The definition of "early recurrence (ER)" after rectal cancer surgery is currently unclear.

Objective: To determine an evidence-based cut-off to distinguish early and late recurrence (LR) for patients with rectal cancer and compare the clinicopathological factors between the two groups.

Methods: Patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and radical resection for locally advanced rectal cancer were included. A minimum p-value approach was used to evaluate the optimal cut-off value of recurrence-free survival to divide the patients into ER and LR groups based on overall survival. A logistic regression model was used to assess risk factors for ER.

Results: A total of 763 patients were included, of which 167 (21.9%) experienced recurrence. The optimal cut-off value of recurrence-free survival to differentiate between ER (n = 125, 74.9%) and LR (n = 42, 25.1%) was 24 months (P = 0.000001). The median postrecurrence survival of ER and LR was 12 months and 22 months, respectively (p = 0.028). The most common recurrent sites in patients with ER and LR were lung metastases, the incidence of liver metastases, however, differed considerably in ER and LR (27.2% vs 9.5%, P = 0.019). Risk factors including elevated preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), higher ypTNM stage, positive circumferential resection margin (CRM), and perineural invasion were significantly associated with ER.

Conclusion: A recurrence-free interval of 24 months is the optimal cut-off value for defining ER versus LR. Elevated preoperative CEA, higher ypTNM staging, positive CRM, and perineural invasion were associated with ER of locally advanced rectal cancer.

Keywords: Early recurrence; Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy; Rectal cancer.