Estimation of the potential spread risk of COVID-19: Occurrence assessment along the Yangtze, Han, and Fu River basins in Hubei, China

Bo Yang; Wei Li; Jingquan Wang; Zixin Tian; Xin Cheng; Yongli Zhang; Rui Qiu; Shuhua Hou; Hongguang Guo

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141353

Estimation of the potential spread risk of COVID-19: Occurrence assessment along the Yangtze, Han, and Fu River basins in Hubei, China

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Dec 1:746:141353. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141353. Epub 2020 Jul 29.

Authors

Bo Yang¹, Wei Li¹, Jingquan Wang¹, Zixin Tian¹, Xin Cheng², Yongli Zhang¹, Rui Qiu³, Shuhua Hou³, Hongguang Guo⁴

Affiliations

¹ MOE Key Laboratory of Deep Earth Science and Engineering, College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China.
² MOE Key Laboratory of Deep Earth Science and Engineering, College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China; Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States.
³ Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China.
⁴ MOE Key Laboratory of Deep Earth Science and Engineering, College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China. Electronic address: hgguo@scu.edu.cn.

Abstract

Given that the novel coronavirus was detected in stool and urine from diagnosed patients, the potential risk of its transmission through the water environment might not be ignored. In the current study, to investigate the spread possibility of COVID-19 via the environmental media, three typical rivers (Yangtze, Han, and Fu River) and watershed cities in Hubei province of China were selected, and a more comprehensive risk assessment analysis method was built with a risk index proposed. Results showed that the risk index in the Yangtze River Basin is about 10^-12, compared to 10^-10 and 10^-8 in the Han and Fu River Basins, and the risk index is gradually reduced from Wuhan city to the surrounding cities. The safety radius and safety time period for the Yangtze, Han, and Fu River are 8 km/14 h, 20 km/30 h and 36 km/36 h, respectively. The linear relationship between the risk potential calculated by the QMRA model and the multiple linear regression proved that the built index model is statistically significant. By comparing the theoretical removal rates for the novel coronavirus, our study proposed an effective method to estimate the potential spread risk of COVID-19 in the typical river basins.

Keywords: COVID-19; QMRA; Risk assessment; Water environment.

MeSH terms

Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
China
Cities
Coronavirus Infections*
Humans
Pandemics*
Pneumonia, Viral*
Rivers*
SARS-CoV-2