Flash flooding is the natural hazard provoking the largest number of casualties, so adequately characterizing vulnerability is key to improve flood risk analysis and management. Developing composite indices is the most widely used methodology in vulnerability analysis. However, very few studies have so far assessed vulnerability in urban areas prone to flash flooding and the resulting research presents two main drawbacks: i) a fragmented approach is often pursued, i.e. without jointly considering the vulnerability components (exposure, sensitivity and resilience) and the two most influential dimensions in urban environments (social and economic); and ii) vulnerability indices are not usually validated because an ancillary dataset is not generally available and flash flooding events do not happen simultaneously in all urban areas of a particular region. Considering the above gaps, this paper describes the construction of an Integrated Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index (ISEVI) at the regional scale, which considers all vulnerability components and social and economic dimensions. ISEVI was subsequently validated through an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method. Further, regional spatial patterns of vulnerability were identified implementing a Latent Class Cluster Analysis. Uncertainty analysis reveals the high stability of vulnerability categories of the ISEVI and sensitivity analysis shows that the type and the conservation state of buildings are the vulnerability factors that cause a greater variability in ISEVI scores. The method deployed here may allow specific strategies for vulnerability reduction to be developed based on disaggregating the validated ISEVI into dimensions and components and using the regional spatial patterns characterized.
Keywords: Flash flooding; Integrated analysis; Internal validation; Sensitivity analysis; Spatial patterns; Uncertainty.
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