Mechanisms of human-black bear conflicts in Japan: In preparation for climate change

Abstract

Many studies have reported effects of global climate change on wildlife, including changes in species distributions and population sizes but perspectives on interactions between the biosphere and the anthroposphere are limited. Bears have a worldwide range and often come into conflict with humans. We assessed the effects of weather variables including temperature, precipitation, and sunshine on human-bear conflicts. Given that the relationship between climate and bear physiology is poorly understood, we first conducted an exploratory analysis using regression techniques. We then built a final predictive model using generalized linear mixed modelling and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC)-based model selection. Our model highlighted the influence of cold temperatures during denning on the frequency of human-bear conflicts. Cold temperatures during denning are related to increased energy requirements for thermoregulation. It is likely that the resulting increase in demand for food following denning leads to an increase in human-bear conflicts. Our results also indicate that cool springs, lingering winter snowpacks, and hot summers may increase human-bear conflicts due to associated reductions in key food sources.

Keywords: Denning; Food shortage; Photosynthesis; Smooth spline; Thermoregulation; Weather condition.