Background: In Sub-Saharan Africa, chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a major public health issue. We estimated the long-term clinical benefits of treating CHC with sofosbuvir-based regimens in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal using Markov model combining data from the literature with estimates of direct-acting antiviral (DAAs) effectiveness in West and Central Africa.
Methods: Disease progression was simulated with and without treatment in fictive cohorts of patients "diagnosed" with CHC in Cameroon (n = 3224), Côte d'Ivoire (n = 9748) and Senegal (n = 6358). Lifetime treatment benefits were assessed using (a) life-years saved (LYS); (b) life-years (LY) avoided in compensated cirrhosis (CC), decompensated cirrhosis (DC) and hepatocellular carcinoma; and (c) comparison of the proportions of patients at each disease stage with and without treatment. Probabilistic and determinist sensitivity analyses were performed to address uncertainty.
Results: Sofosbuvir-based treatment would save [mean, 95% confidence intervals] 3.3 (2.5; 5.7) LY per patient in Cameroon, 2.7 (2.1; 4.8) in Côte d'Ivoire and 3.6 (2.8; 6.3) in Senegal. With treatment, approximately 6% (1%) of the patients still alive in each of the study countries would be in the CC (DC) health state 11 (15) years after CHC diagnosis, vs 15% (5%) without treatment. Scenario analysis showed earlier diagnosis and treatment initiation would dramatically improve LYS and morbidity.
Conclusion: Sofosbuvir-based treatment could significantly reduce CHC-related mortality and help control CHC-related liver disease progression in West and Central Africa. However, the goal of disease elimination necessitates a substantial decrease in DAAs prices, greater political commitment and increases in both national and external health expenditures.
Keywords: Africa; Markov simulation; direct-acting antivirals (DAAs); hepatitis C; low-income countries.
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.