Studies assessing the predictability of evolution typically focus on short-term adaptation within populations or the repeatability of change among lineages. A missing consideration in speciation research is to determine whether natural selection predictably transforms standing genetic variation within populations into differences between species. Here, we test whether and how host-related selection on diapause timing associates with genome-wide differentiation during ecological speciation by comparing ancestral hawthorn and newly formed apple-infesting host races of Rhagoletis pomonella to their sibling species Rhagoletis mendax that attacks blueberries. The associations of 57 857 single nucleotide polymorphisms in a diapause genome-wide-association study (GWAS) on the hawthorn race strongly predicted the direction and magnitude of genomic divergence among the three fly populations at a field site in Fennville, MI, USA. The apple race and R. mendax show parallel changes in the frequencies of putative inversions on three chromosomes associated with the earlier fruiting times of apples and blueberries compared to hawthorns. A diapause GWAS on R. mendax revealed compensatory changes throughout the genome accounting for the earlier eclosion of blueberry, but not apple flies. Thus, a degree of predictability, although not complete, exists in the genomics of diapause across the ecological speciation continuum in Rhagoletis. The generality of this result is placed in the context of other similar systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards the completion of speciation: the evolution of reproductive isolation beyond the first barriers'.
Keywords: Rhagoletis mendax; Rhagoletis pomonella; genomics of diapause; host races; sibling species; sympatric.