Clinicopathological characteristics and prediction of cancer-specific survival in large cell lung cancer: a population-based study

Yafei Shi; Wei Chen; Chunyu Li; Shuya Qi; Xiaowei Zhou; Yujun Zhang; Ying Li; Guohui Li

doi:10.21037/jtd.2020.04.24

Clinicopathological characteristics and prediction of cancer-specific survival in large cell lung cancer: a population-based study

J Thorac Dis. 2020 May;12(5):2261-2269. doi: 10.21037/jtd.2020.04.24.

Authors

Yafei Shi¹, Wei Chen¹, Chunyu Li¹, Shuya Qi¹, Xiaowei Zhou¹, Yujun Zhang¹, Ying Li¹, Guohui Li¹

Affiliation

¹ Department of Pharmacy, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.

Abstract

Background: To describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of large cell lung cancer (LCLC) with a population-based database and to find the prognosis factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) for these patients; also, to develop a nomogram to independently validate and predict the CSS for LCLC based on the identified prognosis factors.

Methods: We extracted the LCLC patient's information from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database [2005-2014] and summarized the characteristics of the extracted factors. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to find the prognosis factors for LCLC patients and to develop the nomogram based on these in a split train cohort from the extracted data. The validation of the developed nomograms was performed in an independent validation cohort from the extracted data, in which the C-index and the average of the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC) for CSS in 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS was calculated. The calibration curves were drawn to visualize the performance of the established nomogram.

Results: As a result, 4,936 patients with LCLC were identified from the SEER database. Nearly half of LCLC patients were diagnosed with stage IV; only approximately 20% of patients underwent surgery. The prognosis factors that influenced the LCLC patients included age, sex, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, race, surgery, tumor size, and marital status. The calculated C-index was 0.701±0.01, and the mean time-dependent AUC for in 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS was 0.88. The calibrated curve showed that the gap between the predicted and observed values for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS was small.

Conclusions: Sex, age, race, marital status, AJCC stage, surgery, and tumor size were shown to all be the independent prognostic factors of CSS in LCLC. The established nomogram can provide more precise evaluation for the survival of LCLC patients and help the clinicians in the individual management of patients.

Keywords: Large cell lung cancer (LCLC); cancer-specific survival (CSS); characteristics; nomogram.