Sequential serological surveys in the early stages of the coronavirus disease epidemic: limitations and perspectives

Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2020:53:e20200351. doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0351-2020. Epub 2020 Jul 3.

Abstract

Introduction: Estimates of the number of individuals infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 are important for health planning and establishment of expectations regarding herd immunity.

Methods: Seven testing rounds of a serological survey were conducted at 1-week intervals between April 19 and May 31, 2020 in Teresina municipality. RESULTS Over the 7 weeks, serological positivity increased from 0.56% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.18%-1.30%) to 8.33% (95% CI: 6.61%-10.33%), representing 33-53 persons infected for each reported case.

Conclusions: Serological screening may be an important tool for understanding the immunity of a population and planning community interventions.

MeSH terms

  • Asymptomatic Diseases / epidemiology
  • Betacoronavirus / immunology*
  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • COVID-19
  • Confidence Intervals
  • Coronavirus Infections / diagnosis
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / immunology
  • False Positive Reactions
  • Humans
  • Immunity, Herd
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / diagnosis
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / immunology
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Seroepidemiologic Studies