Trade-off between local transmission and long-range dispersal drives infectious disease outbreak size in spatially structured populations

PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Jul 6;16(7):e1008009. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008009. eCollection 2020 Jul.

Abstract

Transmission of infectious diseases between immobile hosts (e.g., plants, farms) is strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of hosts and the distance-dependent probability of transmission. As the interplay between these factors is poorly understood, we use spatial process and transmission modelling to investigate how epidemic size is shaped by host clustering and spatial range of transmission. We find that for a given degree of clustering and individual-level infectivity, the probability that an epidemic occurs after an introduction is generally higher if transmission is predominantly local. However, local transmission also impedes transfer of the infection to new clusters. A consequence is that the total number of infections is maximal if the range of transmission is intermediate. In highly clustered populations, the infection dynamics is strongly determined by the probability of transmission between clusters of hosts, whereby local clusters act as multiplier of infection. We show that in such populations, a metapopulation model sometimes provides a good approximation of the total epidemic size, using probabilities of local extinction, the final size of infections in local clusters, and probabilities of cluster-to-cluster transmission. As a real-world example we analyse the case of avian influenza transmission between poultry farms in the Netherlands.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Animal Husbandry
  • Animals
  • Cluster Analysis
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious*
  • Farms
  • Infectious Disease Medicine / methods
  • Infectious Disease Medicine / trends*
  • Influenza in Birds / epidemiology
  • Influenza in Birds / transmission
  • Models, Biological
  • Netherlands
  • Normal Distribution
  • Population Dynamics
  • Poultry
  • Probability
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk

Grants and funding

The research of EB, TH, and MvB was supported by a ZonMw grant (project number 522001001) from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) (http://www.zonmw.nl/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.