Changing Degree of Convective Organization as a Mechanism for Dynamic Changes in Extreme Precipitation

Abstract

Purpose of review: What does recent work say about how changes in convective organization could lead to changes in extreme precipitation?

Recent findings: Changing convective organization is one mechanism that could explain variation in extreme precipitation increase through dynamics. In models, the effects of convective self-aggregation on extreme precipitation are sensitive to parameterization, among other factors. In both models and observations, whether or not convective organization influences extreme precipitation is sensitive to the time and space scales analyzed, affecting extreme precipitation on some scales but not others. While trends in observations in convective organization associated with mean precipitation have been identified, it has not yet been established whether these trends are robust or relevant for events associated with extreme precipitation.

Summary: Recent work has documented a somewhat view of how changes in convective organization could affect extreme precipitation with warming, and it remains unclear whether or not they do.

Keywords: Climate change; Convective organization; Extreme precipitation.