Computational models to improve surveillance for cassava brown streak disease and minimize yield loss

PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Jul 2;16(7):e1007823. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007823. eCollection 2020 Jul.

Abstract

Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) is a rapidly spreading viral disease that affects a major food security crop in sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, there are several proposed management interventions to minimize loss in infected fields. Field-scale data comparing the effectiveness of these interventions individually and in combination are limited and expensive to collect. Using a stochastic epidemiological model for the spread and management of CBSD in individual fields, we simulate the effectiveness of a range of management interventions. Specifically we compare the removal of diseased plants by roguing, preferential selection of planting material, deployment of virus-free 'clean seed' and pesticide on crop yield and disease status of individual fields with varying levels of whitefly density crops under low and high disease pressure. We examine management interventions for sustainable production of planting material in clean seed systems and how to improve survey protocols to identify the presence of CBSD in a field or quantify the within-field prevalence of CBSD. We also propose guidelines for practical, actionable recommendations for the deployment of management strategies in regions of sub-Saharan Africa under different disease and whitefly pressure.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Africa South of the Sahara
  • Animals
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Disease Resistance
  • Environmental Monitoring / methods*
  • Food Supply
  • Hemiptera
  • Manihot*
  • Models, Statistical
  • Plant Diseases* / prevention & control
  • Plant Diseases* / statistics & numerical data

Grants and funding

CAG received a grant (RG67082) from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (https://www.gatesfoundation.org). ACF was supported with a fellowship by the Fannie and John Hertz Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.