Trends in COVID-19 Outbreak in Tokyo and Osaka from January 25 to May 6, 2020: a Joinpoint Regression Analysis of the Outbreak Data

Jpn J Infect Dis. 2021 Jan 22;74(1):73-75. doi: 10.7883/yoken.JJID.2020.332. Epub 2020 Jun 30.

Abstract

We analyzed the trends of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Tokyo and Osaka from January 25 to May 6, 2020. To analyze the trends and identify significant changes in them, we performed a joinpoint regression analysis. From the last week of March, the number of COVID-19 cases soared in Tokyo (β = 103.51) and Osaka (β = 28.07). During the 2nd and 3rd weeks of April, both Tokyo (β = 157.53) and Osaka (β = 60.96) experienced peak growth in COVID-19 cases. Since almost 14 days after the state of emergency declaration, the number of cases showed a containment trend in Osaka, but continued to increase at a concerning rate in Tokyo (β = 90.66).

Keywords: COVID-19; Osaka; Tokyo; trend analysis.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • Cities / epidemiology
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Humans
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Regression Analysis
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Time Factors