Risk factors for disease progression in COVID-19 patients

BMC Infect Dis. 2020 Jun 23;20(1):445. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05144-x.

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading worldwide. Although 10-20% of patients with COVID-19 have severe symptoms, little is known about the risk factors related to the aggravation of COVID-19 symptoms from asymptomatic or mild to severe disease states.

Methods: This retrospective study included 211 patients who were asymptomatic or with mild presentations of COVID-19. We evaluated the differences in demographic and clinical data between the cured (discharged to home) and transferred (aggravated to severe-stage COVID-19) groups.

Results: A multivariate logistic analysis showed that body temperature, chills, initial chest X-ray findings, and the presence of diabetes were significantly associated with predicting the progression to severe stage of COVID-19 (p < 0.05). The odds ratio of transfer in patients with COVID-19 increased by 12.7-fold for abnormal findings such as haziness or consolidation in initial chest X-ray, 6.32-fold for initial symptom of chills, and 64.1-fold for diabetes.

Conclusions: Even if patients are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, clinicians should closely observe patients with COVID-19 presenting with chills, body temperature > 37.5 °C, findings of pneumonia in chest X-ray, or diabetes.

Keywords: Chilling; Coronavirus disease; Diabetes; Fever; Risk factor: symptom aggravation.

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Cohort Studies
  • Coronavirus Infections / complications
  • Coronavirus Infections / diagnostic imaging
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / physiopathology*
  • Diabetes Complications
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Odds Ratio
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / complications
  • Pneumonia, Viral / diagnostic imaging
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / physiopathology*
  • Republic of Korea
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • SARS-CoV-2