COVID-19 in Italy: Considerations on official data

Gino Sartor; Marco Del Riccio; Irene Dal Poz; Paolo Bonanni; Guglielmo Bonaccorsi

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.060

COVID-19 in Italy: Considerations on official data

Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Sep:98:188-190. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.060. Epub 2020 Jun 20.

Authors

Gino Sartor¹, Marco Del Riccio², Irene Dal Poz³, Paolo Bonanni¹, Guglielmo Bonaccorsi¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
² Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy. Electronic address: marco.delriccio@unifi.it.
³ Institute of Advanced Studies, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.

Abstract

COVID-19 represents a major public health issue in Italy; estimating the size of the outbreak could direct public health policies and inform us of the extent of the reorganization needed in the healthcare system, the efficacy of quarantine measures, and eventually on the achievement of herd immunity. To chart the real extent of COVID-19 infection in Italy official data need to be interpreted, considering various aspects such as the "suspected-case" definition that changed during recent months, the management of asymptomatic and untested symptomatic cases, the system for reporting deaths, and short-term fluctuations. All these aspects should be considered when reflecting on the meaning of the official COVID-19 figures in Italy. Regionalization of the healthcare system and fragmentation of data represent real challenges in the management of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. The authors' opinion is that transparent and accurate reporting could guide policy-making and help reorganize health services.

Keywords: COVID-19; Italy; SARS-CoV-2.

MeSH terms

Betacoronavirus*
COVID-19
Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
Disease Outbreaks
Humans
Italy / epidemiology
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
Public Health
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2