Mytilopsis sallei, an invasive alien species, has strong reproductive ability and high adaptability. It can severely endanger biodiversity of intertidal ecosystem after invasion. The intertidal zones and oyster breeding areas in some coastal areas of Guangdong Province have been severely invaded by M. sallei. To examine the potential habitat of M. sallei in China, we established a potential habitat prediction model of M. sallei using Maxent and ArcGIS method for China and global scales. The model was verified by the method of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis and field investigation. The results showed that M. sallei could distribute with high probabili-ty in the area between North and South America, South India in Asia, Sri Lanka, the south coast of the Yangtze River in China, and in Van Dimen Bay of the southern hemisphere. In China, M. sallei mainly distributed in coastal provinces south of Shanghai. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable distribution areas for M. sallei were water vapor pressure, temperature, and solar radiation. After ROC detection, the AUC values of both the training and testing sets were 0.996, indicating that the prediction reached an excellent level. Our results provide theoretical basis for the risk assessment and management of M. sallei, and complement the potential habitat prediction of invasive species in China.
外来入侵物种沙筛贝适应能力强、繁殖率高,一旦入侵,将严重危害潮间带生物多样性。我国广东省部分沿海地区的潮间带和牡蛎增养殖区已被沙筛贝入侵,且污损情况较严重。为了了解沙筛贝目前在我国的潜在生境情况,本研究选用最大熵模型(Maxent)和地理信息系统相结合,建立了沙筛贝在我国和全球的潜在生境预测模型,并利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)和实地调查对结果进行验证。结果表明: 沙筛贝全球存在概率较高的地区分布于北美洲与南美洲之间、印度南部、斯里兰卡和我国长江以南沿海以及南半球的澳大利亚范迪门湾;沙筛贝在我国的适生区域主要分布在上海以南沿海省份。影响沙筛贝适生区域分布的主要环境变量包括水汽压、温度和太阳辐射,经ROC检测后训练集AUC值为0.996,预测结果达到优秀水平。研究结果可为沙筛贝入侵风险评估和治理提供理论依据, 补充我国外来入侵物种的潜在生境预测工作。.
Keywords: Mytilopsis sallei; biological invasion; model; potential habitat.