Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) from Wuhan to Cities in China

Zhanwei Du; Lin Wang; Simon Cauchemez; Xiaoke Xu; Xianwen Wang; Benjamin J Cowling; Lauren Ancel Meyers

doi:10.1101/2020.01.28.20019299

Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) from Wuhan to Cities in China

medRxiv [Preprint]. 2020 Feb 17:2020.01.28.20019299. doi: 10.1101/2020.01.28.20019299.

Authors

Zhanwei Du¹, Lin Wang², Simon Cauchemez², Xiaoke Xu³, Xianwen Wang⁴, Benjamin J Cowling⁵, Lauren Ancel Meyers^{1

6}

Affiliations

¹ The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712, The United States of America.
² nstitut Pasteur, 28 rue du Dr Roux, Paris 75015, France.
³ Dalian Minzu University, Dalian 116600, China.
⁴ Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China.
⁵ The University of Hong Kong, Sassoon Rd 7, Hong Kong SAR, China.
⁶ Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, The United States of America.

Abstract

On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain an emerging coronavirus (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 cities in China before the quarantine. The expected risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas of China.

Keywords: Wuhan; coronavirus; epidemiology; importation.

Publication types

Preprint

Grants and funding

U01 GM087719/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States