Examination of information release on return volatility: A market and sectoral analysis

Mason Prasad; Walid Bakry; Maria Estela Varua

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03885

Examination of information release on return volatility: A market and sectoral analysis

Heliyon. 2020 May 27;6(5):e03885. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03885. eCollection 2020 May.

Authors

Mason Prasad¹, Walid Bakry¹, Maria Estela Varua¹

Affiliation

¹ Western Sydney University, School of Business, 169 Macquarie St, Parramatta, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia.

Abstract

This paper examines the role of information release in explaining the return volatility of the Australian equity market. The study applies proxies of greater accuracy to examine the effect of public and private information on return volatility. Analyst price targets (PTR) and Morningstar stock star ratings (MSR) were used as private information proxies while Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) announcements were used as the public information proxy. Daily data was collected for ASX 200 listed firms for the period 2013 to 2017. Analysis was conducted at both the aggregate market level and the sectoral level. Findings suggest that PTR have the largest effect on return volatility at both levels, with varied effects within each sector. This indicates that investors rely heavily on this information when undertaking investment decisions. In contrast, MSR had a negligible effect, likely due to the lower degree of informational content. Public information had a minor effect on return volatility at both the aggregate market and sectoral levels. These mixed results show that information flow varies depending on the information type (i.e. public or private) with each sector interpreting the same type of information differently. The research findings provide a valuable guide to investors regarding the appropriate information to generate excess returns as well as to hedge against future losses.

Keywords: APGARCH; ASX announcements; Analyst price targets; E-GARCH; Econometrics; Economics; Finance; Financial economics; Financial market; GJR-GARCH; Morningstar stock star ratings; Pricing; Sectoral return volatility.