Optimal temperature zone for the dispersal of COVID-19

Zhongwei Huang; Jianping Huang; Qianqing Gu; Pengyue Du; Hongbin Liang; Qing Dong

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139487

Optimal temperature zone for the dispersal of COVID-19

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Sep 20:736:139487. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139487. Epub 2020 May 16.

Authors

Zhongwei Huang¹, Jianping Huang², Qianqing Gu¹, Pengyue Du¹, Hongbin Liang¹, Qing Dong¹

Affiliations

¹ Collaborative Innovation Center for West Ecological Safety (CIWES), College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
² Collaborative Innovation Center for West Ecological Safety (CIWES), College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China. Electronic address: hjp@lzu.edu.cn.

Abstract

It is essential to know the environmental parameters within which the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can survive to understand its global dispersal pattern. We found that 60.0% of the confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in places where the air temperature ranged from 5 °C to 15 °C, with a peak in cases at 11.54 °C. Moreover, approximately 73.8% of the confirmed cases were concentrated in regions with absolute humidity of 3 g/m³ to 10 g/m³. SARS-CoV-2 appears to be spreading toward higher latitudes. Our findings suggest that there is an optimal climatic zone in which the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 markedly increases in the ambient environment (including the surfaces of objects). These results strongly imply that the COVID-19 pandemic may spread cyclically and outbreaks may recur in large cities in the mid-latitudes in autumn 2020.

Keywords: COVID-19; Dispersal; Pandemic; SARS-CoV-2; Temperature.

MeSH terms

Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
Cities
Climate*
Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
Humans
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
SARS-CoV-2
Temperature*