Long-term prognosis of adolescent and middle-aged Chinese patients with low-medium risk community-acquired pneumonia: A cohort study

Abstract

Introduction: The long-term mortality rate in adolescent and middle-aged patients with low-medium risk community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains unelucidated.

Objective: Understanding the long-term mortality rate in adolescent and middle-aged patients with low-medium risk CAP in Beijing, China, to provide a basis for the long-term management of CAP patient.

Methods: A follow-up survey was conducted telephonically from December 2017 to January 2018 to assess the survival status among 808 patients from a CAP-China cohort enrolled from 10 general hospitals in Beijing between November 2010 and April 2012. The all-cause mortality rate was determined and Cox's proportional hazard model was performed to identify potential factors predicting mortality.

Results: Among the 808 patients, the mean age (SD) was 45.4 (19.6) year-old and the median (IQR) pneumonia severity index (PSI) score was 42.0 (35.8). Survival status for a total of 426 (52.7%) were determined during the follow-up and the non-follow-up patients were with slightly larger PSI score. The mean age (SD) for the follow-up patients were 44.6 (18.7) year-old and the median (IQR) PSI score was 42.0 (33.3). Over a median of 7 years, 32 participants died and the cumulative 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-year all-cause mortality rates were 1.6%, 4.2%, 5.9% and 7.5%, respectively. The average annual standardized mortality rate among the study participants was 9.79‰, which was significantly higher than the mortality rate of 5.20‰ among Beijing residents in 2016. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses revealed that age, comorbidity and PSI were independent prognostic factors associated with long-term mortality, with hazard ratios of 4.953 (95% confidence interval [CI]3.270-7.502), 2.393 (95% CI 1.148-4.985) and 3.553 (95% CI 2.607-4.843), respectively. [Correction added on 20 August 2020, after first online publication: "9.79%" has been corrected to "9.79‰".] CONCLUSION: The long-term mortality rate is higher among patients with CAP compared with the age-adjusted general population in the same city. Age, comorbidity and initial PSI class are independently prognostic factors for the long-term mortality rate.

Keywords: community-acquired pneumonia; follow-up; long-term mortality rate; prognostic factors.