Decoupling energy consumption from economic growth is vital to the realization of sustainable development. To reduce energy demand, China has implemented an energy cap policy and pledged to limit total energy consumption to around 5000 million tons of standard coal equivalent by 2020 in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020). The prospect of achieving this target relies on the understanding of China's energy growth pattern. To this end, we investigate the transformation of the growth pattern in China's energy consumption from 2005 to 2015. We combine environmental input-output approach and structural decomposition analysis to study the factors that influence the changes in China's energy consumption. Results show that energy consumption growth shifted from export-driven before the Financial Crisis (2005-2007) to investment-driven during the Financial Crisis (2007-2010) and to consumption-driven both in the Economic Recovery (2010-2012) and in the New Normal (2012-2015). Consumption volume was the major promoting factor of the growth in energy consumption, but it became less important over time. In contrast, energy intensity was the primary factor offsetting energy consumption growth, with varying contribution over the period 2005-2015. Correspondingly, we further discuss how relevant policies for each period contribute to shaping the growth pattern and give recommendations for energy policymakers.
Keywords: Energy consumption; Environmental input-output approach; Growth pattern; Structural decomposition analysis.