Warming can accelerate the decomposition of soil organic matter and stimulate the release of soil greenhouse gases (GHGs), but to what extent soil release of methane (CH4 ) and nitrous oxide (N2 O) may contribute to soil C loss for driving climate change under warming remains unresolved. By synthesizing 1,845 measurements from 164 peer-reviewed publications, we show that around 1.5°C (1.16-2.01°C) of experimental warming significantly stimulates soil respiration by 12.9%, N2 O emissions by 35.2%, CH4 emissions by 23.4% from rice paddies, and by 37.5% from natural wetlands. Rising temperature increases CH4 uptake of upland soils by 13.8%. Warming-enhanced emission of soil CH4 and N2 O corresponds to an overall source strength of 1.19, 1.84, and 3.12 Pg CO2 -equivalent/year under 1°C, 1.5°C, and 2°C warming scenarios, respectively, interacting with soil C loss of 1.60 Pg CO2 /year in terms of contribution to climate change. The warming-induced rise in soil CH4 and N2 O emissions (1.84 Pg CO2 -equivalent/year) could reduce mitigation potential of terrestrial net ecosystem production by 8.3% (NEP, 22.25 Pg CO2 /year) under warming. Soil respiration and CH4 release are intensified following the mean warming threshold of 1.5°C scenario, as compared to soil CH4 uptake and N2 O release with a reduced and less positive response, respectively. Soil C loss increases to a larger extent under soil warming than under canopy air warming. Warming-raised emission of soil GHG increases with the intensity of temperature rise but decreases with the extension of experimental duration. This synthesis takes the lead to quantify the ecosystem C and N cycling in response to warming and advances our capacity to predict terrestrial feedback to climate change under projected warming scenarios.
Keywords: climate change; greenhouse gas; meta-analysis; soil C and N pool; warming.
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