Evidence that high temperatures and intermediate relative humidity might favor the spread of COVID-19 in tropical climate: A case study for the most affected Brazilian cities

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze how meteorological conditions such as temperature, humidity and rainfall can affect the spread of COVID-19 in five Brazilian (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Manaus and Fortaleza) cities. The cities selected were those with the largest number of confirmed cases considering data of April 13. Variables such as number of cumulative cases, new daily cases and contamination rate were employed for this study. Our results showed that higher mean temperatures and average relative humidity favored the COVID-19 transmission, differently from reports from coldest countries or periods of time under cool temperatures. Thus, considering the results obtained, intersectoral policies and actions are necessary, mainly in cities where the contamination rate is increasing rapidly. Thus, prevention and protection measures should be adopted in these cities aiming to reduce transmission and the possible collapse of the health system.

Keywords: Air temperature; Coronavirus; Humidity; Meteorology; Principal component analysis; SARS-CoV2.