A commentary on "how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise" by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal

J L Bamber; W P Aspinall; R M Cooke

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1672-7

A commentary on "how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise" by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal

Clim Change. 2016;137(3):321-328. doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1672-7. Epub 2016 Jun 7.

Authors

J L Bamber¹, W P Aspinall², R M Cooke³

Affiliations

¹ 1School of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS UK.
² 2School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1RJ UK.
³ 3Department of Mathematics, TU Delft, The Netherlands (ret) and Resources for the Future, Washington, DC USA.

Abstract

We clarify key aspects of the evaluation, by de Vries and van de Wal (2015), of our expert elicitation paper on the contributions of ice sheet melting to sea level rise due to future global temperature rise scenarios (Bamber and Aspinall 2013), and extend the conversation with further analysis of their proposed approach for combining expert uncertainty judgments.

Keywords: Calibration Variable; Expert Elicitation; Expert Judgment; Global Temperature Rise; Statistical Accuracy.

Publication types

Editorial