Background and objective: This was a population-based ecological with data of deaths from the Mortality Information System. The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal trends of mortality induced by bronchi and lung cancer in Brazil and its geographical regions between 2001 and 2015 and secondly to calculate predictions for 2016-2030.
Material and methods: The mortality trends were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression and calculation of predictions was used the Nordpred software.
Results: There was a reduction trend in lung cancer mortality among Brazilian men living in South and Southeast regions of Brazil. However, there was an increasing trend in lung cancer mortality among Brazilian women living in Northeast, Southeast, and South regions of Brazil. When comparing the last observed period and the last foreseen period for males, it is expected an increase of 12.86% in the number of deaths, justified mainly by the change in population structure, with a reduction in the risk of death by the disease. For women, the expected increase is 26.22%, justified both by population structure, and the increased risk of deaths from the disease. The higher rates will be observed in the southern region of the country, for both sexes.
Conclusion: The mortality induced by lung and bronchial cancer in Brazil was unevenly distributed. However lung cancer incidence had a reducing trend, the mortality caused following it was increased among men. For women, the rates are rising, and until 2030, the mortality load will continue to rise for both.<br />.
Keywords: Lung neoplasm; Projections; Trends; mortality.