Disadvantaged neighborhoods and the spatial overlap of substantiated and unsubstantiated child maltreatment referrals

Abstract

Background: Considerable debate exists on whether the substantiation decision is a reliable measure for rates of maltreatment. Studies have shown that risks among children victims of maltreatment versus children investigated but unsubstantiated are similar.

Objective: This paper aims to respond to two research questions: (1) Do most child maltreatment referrals, substantiated and unsubstantiated, come from the same neighborhoods? (2) Do substantiated and unsubstantiated referrals share the same neighborhood risk factors?

Participants and settings: We used geocoded data from substantiated (n = 1799) and unsubstantiated (n = 1638) child maltreatment referrals in Valencia, Spain (2004-2015). As the neighborhood proxy, we used 552 Census block groups. Neighborhood characteristics analyzed were: socioeconomic status, immigration concentration, residential instability, and public disorder and crime.

Methods: To study the geographical overlap of child maltreatment referrals, a Bayesian joint modeling approach was used. To analyze the influence of neighborhood-level characteristics on risk, we used a Bayesian random-effects modeling approach.

Results: For substantiated child maltreatment referrals, 90 % of the total between-area variation in risk is captured by the shared component, while for unsubstantiated child maltreatment referrals, the shared component was 88 %. The correlation between substantiated and unsubstantiated risks of child maltreatment referrals was .80. These risks were higher in neighborhoods with low levels of socioeconomic status, higher immigrant concentration, public disorder and crime.

Conclusions: Child maltreatment referrals, regardless of whether substantiated or unsubstantiated, overlap in the same disadvantaged neighborhoods. This suggests that in these neighborhoods, families are at a higher risk of being investigated by child protective services suggesting a potential reporting bias.

Keywords: Child maltreatment referrals; Neighborhood risk factors; Victims of maltreatment.