Potential new aerosol source(s) in the Middle East

Emily Elhacham; Pinhas Alpert

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137925

Potential new aerosol source(s) in the Middle East

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jul 15:726:137925. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137925. Epub 2020 Apr 8.

Authors

Emily Elhacham¹, Pinhas Alpert²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geophysics, Tel Aviv University, 69978, Israel. Electronic address: emilyel1@post.tau.ac.il.
² Department of Geophysics, Tel Aviv University, 69978, Israel.

PMID: 32305748
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137925

Abstract

The Middle East region suffers from high levels of air pollution originating from both Saharan/Arabian mineral dust particles and pollution from East Europe. A recent extreme autumn dust storm, originating from the Middle East, highlights the potential of a new aerosol source in the region. By studying the trends of daily regional synoptic systems through the 21st century, we show that dust-affiliated systems are projected to increase significantly, i.e. Red-Sea-Trough from 35.0 to 41.6% during autumn, for RCP8.5. Whereas, rain-affiliated ones are projected to decrease (for Cyprus Lows group from 18.7 to 12.5%). Here, it is suggested that those trends, along with increased anthropogenic activities, may result in the formation of a consistent new aerosol source in the area, which could influence life in the region. This is supported by a recent study showing an increase in dust deposition over the region.

Keywords: 21st century projections; Aerosol sources; Air pollution; Dust trends; Middle East; Synoptic analysis.