[Comparison of two epidemic patterns of COVID-19 and evaluation of prevention and control effectiveness: an analysis based on Guangzhou and Wenzhou]

Abstract

Objective: To compare the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Guangzhou and Wenzhou, and evaluate the effectiveness of their prevention and control measures. Methods: Data of COVID-19 cases reported in Guangzhou and Wenzhou as of February 29, 2020 were collected. The incidence curves of COVID-19 in two cities were constructed. The real time reproduction number (R(t)) of COVID-19 in two cities was calculated respectively. Results: A total of 346 and 465 confirmed COVID-19 cases were analysed in Guangzhou and Wenzhou, respectively. In two cities, most cases were aged 30-59 years (Guangzhou: 54.9%; Wenzhou: 70.3%). The incidence curve peaked on 27 January, 2020 in Guangzhou and on 26 January, 2020 in Wenzhou, then began to decline in both cities. The peaks of imported COVID-19 cases from Hubei occurred earlier than the peak of COVID-19 incidences in two cities, and the peak of imported cases from Hubei occurred earlier in Wenzhou than in Guangzhou. In early epidemic phase, imported cases were predominant in both cities, then the number of local cases increased and gradually took the dominance in Wenzhou. In Guangzhou, the imported cases was still predominant. Despite the different epidemic pattern, the R(t) and the number of COVID-19 cases declined after strict prevention and control measures were taken in Guangzhou and in Wenzhou. Conclusion: The time and scale specific differences of imported COVID-19 resulted in different epidemic patterns in two cities, but the spread of the disease were effectively controlled after taking strict prevention and control measures.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemic pattern; Evaluation of Prevention Effectiveness; Transmissibility.