Negligible risk of the COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in China (outside Hubei): a statistical probability study

J Public Health (Oxf). 2020 Aug 18;42(3):651-652. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa046.

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak in China appears to reach the late stage since late March 2020, and a stepwise restoration of economic operations is implemented. Risk assessment for such economic restoration is of significance. Here, we estimated the probability of COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in typical provinces/cities and found that such probability is very limited (<5% for all the regions except Beijing). Our work may inform provincial governments to make risk level-based, differentiated control measures.

Keywords: COVID-19; COVID-19 resurgence; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; risk assessment; work resuming.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • China / epidemiology
  • Cities
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
  • Probability*
  • Recurrence
  • Return to Work / statistics & numerical data*
  • Risk Assessment / statistics & numerical data*
  • SARS-CoV-2