Nomogram Based on Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index to Predict Survival of Tongue Cancer Patients Who Underwent Cervical Dissection

Abstract

Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of the preoperative systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and to establish a nomogram for prediction of survival of tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) patients who underwent primary surgery and cervical dissection. Methods: 120 patients diagnosed with TSCC who underwent primary tumor and neck dissection without preoperative treatment were included to develop the nomogram. This model was externally validated in an independent data cohort of 50 TSCC patients. X-tile software was used to identify the optimal cut-off value. Prognostic factors were identified by Univariate and multivariate analyses. A nomogram based on the multivariate analysis results was built to predict the survival rate and calibration curves and concordance index (C-index) were used to determine predictive and discriminatory capacity. Results: The optimal cut-off value was 569×10⁹/L for SII. In the training cohort, a high preoperative SII (>569) was significantly related to tumor size, histological grade, depth of invasion, lymph node density (LND). A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that patients with a lower SII had a significantly better 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) than patients with high SII (80.8% vs. 43.5% and 72.7% vs. 36.2%, respectively, P<0.001). Univariate analyses of training cohort revealed that age, clinical stage, depth of invasion, LND, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and SII were significant prognostic factors for OS. Moreover, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve showed that SII was superior to NLR and PLR for predicting clinical outcomes. However, multivariate analysis found that age, LND, and SII were independent risk factors for OS. The C-index of the nomograms based on independent prognostic factors was 0.716 for OS and 0.723 for DFS. The C-indexes for external validation of OS and DFS were 0.852 and 0.754, respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and actual observations of OS and DFS. Conclusion: SII can serve as a novel independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS of patients with TSCC. The prognostic nomogram based on SII is a reliable model for predicting survival of patients with TSCC after surgery.

Keywords: nomogram; overall survival; prognostic prediction; systemic immune-inflammation index; tongue squamous carcinoma cancer.