Intensity-duration-frequency approach for risk assessment of air pollution events

Abstract

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves can serve as useful tools in risk assessment of extreme environmental events. Thus, this study proposes an IDF approach for evaluating the risk of expected occurrences of extreme air pollution as measured by an air pollution index (API). Hourly data of Klang city in Malaysia from 1997 to 2016 are analyzed. For each year, a block maxima size is determined based on four different monsoon seasons. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used as a model to represent the probabilistic behavior of maximum intensity of the API, which is derived from each block. Based on the GEV model, the IDF curves are developed to estimate the extreme pollution intensities that correspond to various duration hours and return periods. Considering the IDF curves, we found that for any duration hour, the magnitude of pollution intensity tends to be high in parallel with increasing return periods. In fact, a high-intensity pollution event that poses a high risk of affecting the environment is less frequent than low-intensity pollution. In conclusion, the IDF curves provide a good basis for decision makers to assess the expected risk of extreme pollution events in the future.

Keywords: Block maxima approach; Extreme pollution event; Pollution risk assessment.