Urinary Stone Disease (USD) or urolithiasis has plagued humans for centuries, and its prevalence has increased over the past few decades. Although USD pathology could vary significantly among individuals, previous qualitative assessments using limited survey data demonstrated that the prevalence of USD might exhibit a distinctive geographical distribution (the so-called "stone belt"), without any knowledge about the characteristics and contribution factors of the belt. Here, we argue that the spatial distribution of USD can at least partly be explained by geogenic and climatic factors, as it correlates with the ambient geo-environmental conditions modulated by lithology/mineralogy, water quality and climate. Using a Bayesian risk model, we assessed the global risk of USD based on updated big data of four key geogenic factors: phosphorite mines (inventory >1600 points), carbonate rocks (at the scale of 1:40 million), Ca2+/Mg2+ molar ratio of river water (1.27 million samples distributed over 17,000 sampling locations), and mean air temperature (0.5o × 0.5° resolution) representing the climate. We quantitatively identified possible contributions of the factors to USD and delineated the regions with the high USD risk which stretched from southern North America, via the Mediterranean region, northeastern Africa, southern China to Australia, and roughly coincide with the world's major areas of carbonate outcropping. Under current climate conditions, the areas with the probabilities for the USD prevalence of ≥50% and ≥30% covered 3.7% and 20% of the Earth's land surface, respectively. By the end of the 21st century, such total areas could rise to 4.4% and 25% as a result of global warming. Since the USD data used in this study were quite heterogeneous, the prediction results needed further calibration with additional high-quality prevalence data in the future.
Keywords: Bayesian risk model; Climate change; Geogenic factors; Stone belt; Urolithiasis prevalence.
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