New coronavirus outbreak: Framing questions for pandemic prevention

Scott P Layne; James M Hyman; David M Morens; Jeffery K Taubenberger

doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.abb1469

New coronavirus outbreak: Framing questions for pandemic prevention

Sci Transl Med. 2020 Mar 11;12(534):eabb1469. doi: 10.1126/scitranslmed.abb1469.

Authors

Scott P Layne^{1

2

3

4}, James M Hyman^{1

2

3

4}, David M Morens^{1

2

3

4}, Jeffery K Taubenberger^{5

6

7

8}

Affiliations

¹ Scott P. Layne is emeritus professor in the Department of Epidemiology, UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA. Email: scottplayne@gmail.com.
² James M. Hyman is the Evelyn and John G. Phillips Distinguished Professor in Mathematics in the School of Science and Engineering, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA. Email: mhyman@tulane.edu.
³ David M. Morens is Senior Advisor to the Director in the Office of the Director, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. Email: dmorens@niaid.nih.gov.
⁴ Jeffery K. Taubenberger is Chief of the Viral Pathogenesis and Evolution Section, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
⁵ Scott P. Layne is emeritus professor in the Department of Epidemiology, UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA. Email: scottplayne@gmail.com taubenbergerj@niaid.nih.gov.
⁶ James M. Hyman is the Evelyn and John G. Phillips Distinguished Professor in Mathematics in the School of Science and Engineering, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA. Email: mhyman@tulane.edu taubenbergerj@niaid.nih.gov.
⁷ David M. Morens is Senior Advisor to the Director in the Office of the Director, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. Email: dmorens@niaid.nih.gov taubenbergerj@niaid.nih.gov.
⁸ Jeffery K. Taubenberger is Chief of the Viral Pathogenesis and Evolution Section, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. taubenbergerj@niaid.nih.gov.

Abstract

We need to understand and quantify the dominant variables that govern the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, rather than relying exclusively on confirmed cases and their geospatial spread.

Publication types

Editorial
Research Support, N.I.H., Intramural

MeSH terms

Betacoronavirus / pathogenicity*
COVID-19
China / epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections* / epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections* / prevention & control
Epidemiological Monitoring
Europe / epidemiology
Forecasting
Host-Pathogen Interactions*
Humans
Information Dissemination*
Models, Theoretical*
Pandemics / prevention & control*
Pneumonia, Viral* / epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral* / prevention & control
Public Health
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Social Conditions
United States / epidemiology

Grants and funding

ZIA AI001271/ImNIH/Intramural NIH HHS/United States