Sensitivity, uncertainty and identifiability analyses to define a dengue transmission model with real data of an endemic municipality of Colombia

PLoS One. 2020 Mar 11;15(3):e0229668. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229668. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Dengue disease is a major problem for public health surveillance entities in tropical and subtropical regions having a significant impact not only epidemiological but social and economical. There are many factors involved in the dengue transmission process. We can evaluate the importance of these factors through the formulation of mathematical models. However, the majority of the models presented in the literature tend to be overparameterized, with considerable uncertainty levels and excessively complex formulations. We aim to evaluate the structure, complexity, trustworthiness, and suitability of three models, for the transmission of dengue disease, through different strategies. To achieve this goal, we perform structural and practical identifiability, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to these models. The results showed that the simplest model was the most appropriate and reliable when the only available information to fit them is the cumulative number of reported dengue cases in an endemic municipality of Colombia.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aedes / virology
  • Animals
  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data
  • Colombia / epidemiology
  • Computer Simulation
  • Dengue / epidemiology
  • Dengue / transmission*
  • Endemic Diseases
  • Epidemiologic Factors
  • Humans
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological
  • Mosquito Vectors / virology
  • Population Dynamics / statistics & numerical data
  • Public Health Surveillance
  • Uncertainty

Grants and funding

This study was supported by Departamento Administrativo de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación - COLCIENCIAS, Colombia (grant number 111572553478).