Improving energy conservation efficiency is one of the prerequisites for China's manufacturing industry to transform and upgrade. Jiangsu province which presents the maximum economic volume in manufacturing and its economic status in eastern China is comparable to Shanghai. Research on the sustainable development capacity of Jiangsu's manufacturing industry gives important guidance for upgrading the manufacturing industry all over China. The core of China's manufacturing transition to a manufacturing power is to enhance its independent innovation capabilities to improve energy efficiency and its position in the global value chain. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of technological factor on energy conservation potential and the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing. In this paper, multivariate regression research method combined with risk analysis is developed to explore the influence of the research and development factor on energy conservation while introducing macroeconomic variables. Additionally, energy conservation of manufacturing in Jiangsu province in 2020 and 2025 based on historical data from 1985 to 2015 is predicted. Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, the advanced scenario could reduce by 44.07 Mtce and 87.60 Mtce in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Thus, the results indicate that there is much room for improvement in terms of the energy efficiency for Jiangsu province.
Keywords: Energy conservation potential; Multivariate regression model with risk analysis; Provincial manufacturing industry.