[Epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Chinese mainland]

Abstract

Objective: In order to understand the epidemic trend of COVID-19 and evaluate the effect of prevention and control, this study aims to evaluate the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Chinese mainland from January 16 to February 14, 2020. Methods: The daily number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases detected by nucleic acid was collected from the National Health Commission from January 16, 2020 to February 14, 2020. The analysis included the epidemic curve of the new confirmed cases, multiple of the new confirmed cases for period-over-period, multiple of the new confirmed cases for fixed-base, and the period-over-period growth rate of the new confirmed cases. Results: From January 16 to February 14, 2020, the cumulative number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Chinese mainland was 50 031, including 37 930 in Hubei Province, 22 883 in Wuhan city and 12 101 in other provinces outside Hubei. The peak of new confirmed cases in other provinces outside Hubei was from January 31 to February 4, 2020, and the peak of new confirmed cases in Wuhan city and Hubei Province was from February 5 to February 9, 2020. The number of new confirmed cases in other provinces outside Hubei showed a significant decline (23% compared with the peak) from February 5 to February 9, 2020, while the number of new confirmed cases in Wuhan city (30% compared with the peak) and Hubei Province (37% compared with the peak) decreased significantly from February 10 to February 14, 2020. Conclusion: The epidemic prevention and control measures taken by the state and governments at all levels have effectively curbed the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in Chinese mainland.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemiology; Prevention and control measures.