After the 2014-2015 HIV outbreak in Scott County, Indiana, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) conducted a nationwide analysis to identify vulnerable counties to an outbreak of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV)/Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and prevent such an outbreak in the future. We developed a jurisdiction-level vulnerability assessment for HCV infections associated with injection drug use (IDU) in Utah. We used three years of data (2015-2017) from 15 data sources to construct a regression model to identify significant indicators of IDU. A ZIP Code, county, or individual-level measure of IDU does not exist, therefore, CDC has suggested using HCV cases as a proxy for IDU. We used the Social Vulnerability Index to highlight vulnerable areas to HCV outbreaks and applied Geographical Information System (GIS) to identify hot spots of HCV infections (i.e. current/ongoing HCV transmissions). Rates of skin infection, buprenorphine prescription, administered naloxone, teen birth, and per capita income were associated with HCV infections. The opioid epidemic is dynamic and over time, it impacts different communities through its sequelae such as HCV outbreaks. We need to conduct this vulnerability assessment frequently, using updated data, to better target our resources. Moreover, we should consider evaluating whether the improvement of HCV screening has an impact on controlling HCV outbreaks. The analysis informs Utah's agencies and healthcare officials to target resources and interventions to prevent IDU-related HCV outbreaks. Our results inform policymakers at the national level on possible indicators of HCV outbreaks as well.
Keywords: GIS; Health policy; Opioid epidemic; Regression modeling; Utah Department of Health; Vulnerability index.
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